2022-2023 NFL Week 5 Best Bets Against the Spread
This week, HarlemSon (Malik) joined the Uptown Parlay Podcast with Ace & Anthony to provide his Best Bets for the NFL's Week 5 games against the spread*. Check out the picks below and happy betting!!!
*Note: Picks are against MGM Point Spreads and Over/Unders as of Thursday, October 6th.
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
JAC -7 (43.5)
JAC -7 (43.5). The Jaguars return home after two tough road games in LA and Philadelphia and face the only winless team left in the NFL. Houston has played hard for coach Lovie Smith, but they haven't been able to put together a complete game yet. The average margin of difference in their losses is 7.3, but their close losses were to two of the lower ranked offenses in the league in Denver and Chicago. Jacksonville's offense is 7th in the NFL.
The Pick:
Jacksonville is in first place and healthy. The last time they played at home they beat the Colts by 24. This is their division to lose. Can't claim the division if you're dropping games to the Texans. Expect a similar score to last week for Houston when they lost by 10 to the Chargers at home. JAC and the Over
Miami Dolphins @ NY Jets
MIA -3 (48)
It's the Teddy Bridgewater show in the Meadowlands on Sunday. Tua's finally been ruled out in the concussion protocol, so the Dolphins turn to the veteran to get them back on the winning track. He'll have a great tandem of receivers to work with against a young secondary in New York led by impressive rookie Sauce Gardner. Miami is favored by 3 on the road. O/U is 48
The Pick:
I like Teddy with the duo of Hill & Waddle, although he's probably still not going to push the ball down the field much as he's under 6 net air yards per attempt over his career. Meanwhile, the Jets completed their tour of the AFC North, improving to 2-2 after an impressive win in Pittsburgh. Zach Wilson looked "ok" as a QB, while also showing the athleticism that Joe Flacco never really posessed. He should be ok standing in the pocket against Miami's defense, ranking near the bottom of the NFL in sacks & hurries despite being top 10 in blitz percentage. The Jets should be able to score and keep the game close. Teddy may be good enough to sneak out a win, but I like the Jets to cover, if not win outright. NYJ and the Over
SF 49ers @ Carolina Panthers
SF - 6.5 (39.5)
It takes a pretty bad team to be more than a 1 score underdog at home against an opponent averaging17ppg however....The Panthers are 1-26 under Matt Rhule when thier opponent scores more than 17. Assuming SF can get around that number with Jimmy G showing more promise and the defense flipping the field and creating opportunities for the offense, expect the Panthers to lose.
The Pick:
SF's defense is good - 1st in team defense...meanwhile, Baker Mayfield has been about as bad as he could be and CMC isn't scaring anyone any longer. The Panthers should be able to keep it close, but I don't feel good about it SF and the Under
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
BAL -3 (48.5)
On it's face, the lean here should be towards the Bengals. Baltimore seems to have a problem closing games out at home against similarly talented teams. Both of their losses this season came while holding big leads in their house vs Buffalo and Miami, while their two wins came on the road against lesser competition in the Jets and Patriots. After taking their tour of the AFC East, the Ravens get to the first of 2 division games against their rival Bengals, who are looking to continue marching forward with their 3rd straight victory after an 0-2 start.
The Pick:
Baltimore's gotta get this figured out somehow. JK Dobbins has added another element to their offensive attack, and Lamar Jackson has taken the league by storm. He's the scariest cover in the league. Maybe the confrontation between Marcus Peters and the coaching staff will scare the Ravens into making the right decisions during end of game situations. I like these teams to split the season series, with each winning on their own turf. Expect some scoring here, as both defenses are tested by effective and explosive offensive attacks. BAL and the Over
Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
KC -7 (51)
First place KC is back to their dominating ways. After a stumble in Indianapolis, Patrick Mahomes connected with 7 different receivers and scored 41 points against a Bucs defense who's previous high up until that point was the inverse of that (14 points to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers). Mahomes is 6-1 in his career on Monday nights and has won his last 5 primetime tilts dating back to 2019. On the other side, the Raiders bounced back from their slow start with an impressive win at home over the Broncos. They showed they can score with the best in the league when all things are working, but their defense surrendered 23 points to a Denver team that has struggled to score in every other game this season against lesser competition than what the Raiders will see in Arrowhead.
The Pick
It's tough to pick against the Chiefs after what I saw last week in Tampa. Vegas can't afford to fall too far behind. With upcoming games against Houston, New Orleans, Jacksonville and Indianapolis, they could be at or over .500 before Thanksgiving, but an 0-3 record inside the division may already be too much to overcome. Expect KC to control this one and the Raiders go into the bye week with a lot to consider. KC and the Over.